I just watched Benjamin Cowen’s latest video, and honestly, it reinforces the one thing I keep going back to: stick to the historical cycle. Bitcoin just hit a new all-time high after that perfect bounce off the bull market support band, and it feels so validating because it’s playing out exactly like 2013, 2017, and 2021. Every cycle has seen a high near August, a pullback in September, and then a rally into a Q4 market cycle top in the post-halving year. We're now in October with a new all-time high, and that's exactly what was expected.
The most important takeaway for me right now is to not be complacent. Even though everyone wants to believe this time is different and the cycle will last five years or more, all major tops have happened in the fourth quarter. I’m going into the rest of this year assuming the top will be in Q4, and I’m watching a critical indicator to confirm it: weekly closes below the 50-week moving average. Since that line is currently around $101,000, we're not close to that signal yet, which keeps the hope alive for more upside.
Right now, Bitcoin dominance is still soaring, which means money is flowing into BTC, not altcoins. That’s a tough pill to swallow for altcoin enthusiasts, but Benjamin believes it’s going to keep happening. The time-based cycle metrics suggest we’re actually further along than many people realize, which is a bit scary. However, the one big positive is that the euphoria-based indicators—like new retail investors rushing in or social risk metrics—haven't really fired off. This suggests that the final, parabolic melt-up everyone expects hasn’t actually started.
I need to see acceleration this week. If we don’t, we might have to rethink things. But for now, the plan is simple: enjoy this new high, stick to the cycle’s historical tendency to top in Q4, and stay prepared to exit when those key long-term indicators finally flash red. I’m just taking it one day at a time, but it’s great to see the market validate the analysis.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5812UUvIZDw