How are you all doing? The past few months have been quite hectic for the crypto market, haven’t they? With the fall of Bitcoin that we saw in late 2025, many may be wondering, is the real game over? Or is this the calm before the storm?
I have been delving into market trends and global economic dynamics for the past few days. One of the most talked about topics in 2025, in particular, is the “debasement trade.” Simply put, when the value of money falls, people tend to turn to gold or Bitcoin to protect their wealth. But the interesting thing is that while gold held its ground at the end of last year, Bitcoin took a pretty big hit.
So what’s in store for us in 2026? Let’s dig a little deeper.
Looking back, 2025 wasn’t all bad for Bitcoin. In October, Bitcoin hit an all-time high of around $126,080. But it lost momentum in the final quarter of the year and ended the year down nearly 30%.
While many are disappointed, experts like Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas say otherwise. From what I’ve learned from my research, this “debasement trade” is not a one-day gamble; it’s a long-term strategy. As long as governments print money and increase the debt burden (which is increasing every year), there will be demand for fixed-supply assets like Bitcoin. According to Eric, this year too we will see a lot of liquidity entering the market, which is positive for Bitcoin.
Here’s the real twist. The year 2026 could be a "turning point" for Bitcoin, and a big reason for this is US politics and the role of the Federal Reserve.
My observations and various reports say that the current US administration (led by President Trump) is in favour of lowering interest rates to keep the economy strong. Last year, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell wascriticisedd for not lowering interest rates quickly. It is believed that this year, a Fed chairman may come who will increase the flow of money into the market or adopt a "Dovish" policy.
AmberData Director Greg Magadini has said bluntly that the "debasement trade" will be 100% effective in 2026. Because the government can increase the fiscal deficit or deficit budget to keep the market strong before the midterm elections. And history shows that whenever the value of fiat currency or paper money is questioned, Bitcoin burns.
Yes, Bitcoin fell at the end of last year, it's true. According to Pepperstone analyst Dilin Wu, the fears of a devaluation of the currency have not disappeared, but have been temporarily suppressed. Moreover, since the arrival of the Bitcoin ETF in 2024, this market is no longer just for retail investors, but large institutional investors are now viewing Bitcoin as a "long-term hedge.
Friends, I think patience is the real key here. If you don't panic at the daily chart, but look at the big picture, you can see that the game of inflation and money printing has not stopped. And as long as it continues, Bitcoin will not lose its relevance. 2026 may be the year for us where patience will be rewarded.
Let's see which way the market turns, but I am personally quite optimistic.