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Is the Altcoin Season Coming?

kawsar8035 - 2025-07-26 05:43:33





After Bitcoin broke through historical highs, the interest in the cryptocurrency market is quietly shifting towards high-beta assets like Ethereum and Solana. Various on-chain data and capital flow signals suggest that an altcoin-led market may have quietly begun. The bullish trend of Ethereum and Solana has accelerated the entry of major funds.


Recently, the market performance of Ethereum and Solana has particularly caught attention. Such a sharp rise is by no means a coincidence. According to on-chain monitoring platform data, from July 1 to 21, 23 whales or institutions purchased a total of 681,103 Ethers, amounting to approximately $2.6 billion. This suggests that ETH is becoming a key target for major funds to expand their positions in the market.


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The bullishness of ETH and SOL is not merely a temporary surge of individual mainstream assets but is closer to a structural signal. Funds are moving from Bitcoin to the volatile and growing altcoin sector, suggesting that the "altcoin season" may have officially begun. BTC's market share continues to decline, while the altcoin season index shows bullish trends.


While ETH and SOL are rising together, the market structure is also quietly changing. As Bitcoin's market dominance gradually weakens, there is potential for funds to flow into altcoin assets. According to Coinmarketcap data, Bitcoin's market share has continued to decline, currently recording 60.1%, marking its lowest since March this year. At the same time, the altcoin season index has risen, reaching 55 on July 21 and currently standing at 50. This index shows that about 50 of the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization have recorded higher returns than Bitcoin over the past 90 days.


Analysts have analyzed that the strong upward trend of Bitcoin breaking through historical highs has stimulated overall market expectations for an "altcoin activation season." This Bitcoin rise is attributed to its characteristics as a safe asset and its label as a US dollar credit asset. At a time when Japanese government bond yields are rising and there is a possibility of a turning point in the global interest rate structure, this, combined with the bullish structure of the options market, provides a significant structural basis for funds to transition from Bitcoin to altcoin assets.


QCP Capital pointed out in its latest research report that several indicators suggest that the altcoin season has quietly begun. The altcoin season index has surpassed 50, marking its highest level since December last year. The passage of the "GENIUS Act" provides a clear regulatory framework for stablecoin issuance, leading corporate finance departments to consider ETH, SOL, XRP, ADA, and others as next-generation crypto-prepared assets. Additionally, if a collateralized Ethereum spot ETF is approved, institutional investors are expected to accelerate their transition from Bitcoin ETFs to ETH composition. Last week, the net inflow of ETH spot ETFs exceeded Bitcoin for two consecutive days, significantly increasing the trust of institutions like BlackRock. The options market also showed strong bullish signals, and the market outlook for the fourth quarter is optimistic.

Contract high-value investor James Wynn predicts that Bitcoin could reach $145,000 by the end of July. After that, a sharp correction is expected, retreating to $110,000. A strong altcoin bull market is expected to continue over the next 1-2 months, during which everyone will begin to feel FOMO (fear of missing out). He also predicts that Bitcoin's market dominance has been maintained for too long and altcoins are gradually rising. If the Federal Reserve begins to lower interest rates in the fourth quarter, Bitcoin may enter a new upward phase, potentially rising between $160,000 and $240,000.