Reason to trust Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed The highest standards in reporting and publishing How Our News is Made Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Ad discliamer Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio. Bitcoin (BTC) faces a stark downside risk that could send prices below the previous bear market lows, according to a new analysis from blockchain data firm CryptoQuant.
The firm warns that a confluence of geopolitical shocks, macroeconomic repricing, and fragile derivatives positioning could push the largest cryptocurrency as low as $10,000 in a worst‑case scenario — far beneath the last bear‑market trough near $15,000. Political Shock From Trump Speech
CryptoQuant’s note comes against the backdrop of a substantial pullback from Bitcoin’s record highs. After peaking at roughly $126,000 last October, Bitcoin has retraced about 45% and has entered a months‑long consolidation range between $66,000 and $70,000. Related Reading New Bitcoin Crash Ahead? Bloomberg Strategist Forecasts Return To $10,000 – Here’s Why 14 hours ago
The firm highlightsrecent political developments as an immediate catalyst for the downside potential. CryptoQuant points to President Donald Trump’s April 1 speech on Iran as a market‑moving event that abruptly reset expectations.
By signaling the possibility of intensified military action within the coming weeks, the speech undermined hopes for de‑escalation and prompted a broad risk‑off reaction.
In CryptoQuant’s view, this was not merely a geopolitical scare — it forced a repricing of macro conditions that matter to risk assets like Bitcoin.
As oil prices rise, inflationary pressures can return; a firmer dollar tightens dollar liquidity globally. CryptoQuant notes rising volatility — with the VIX near 25 — and widening Treasury spreads, both of which are symptomatic of deteriorating liquidity. Three Possible Bitcoin Outcomes
CryptoQuant lays out a range of possible outcomes. In a moderate stress event, the firm estimates Bitcoin could fall from the $70,000 area to roughly $50,000 — a 25–30% decline.
If Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows continue and spot demand remains soft, the medium‑term downside expands substantially, with prices potentially sliding into the $30,000–$20,000 range, representing declines of 60–70% from current levels. Related Reading ICBA Opposes OCC’s Conditional Nod For Coinbase National Trust Bank Charter 12 hours ago
In the extreme scenario — for example, a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz or a sustained major conflict — global liquidity could seize up more completely.
CryptoQuant suggests that in such circumstances, equities could plunge more than 30% and oil could spike to $150–$200 per barrel, conditions that could drive Bitcoin toward the $10,000 mark, an 85% drop from current trading prices. The daily chart shows BTC’s price trading at around $66,830 at the time of writing, Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com