Nancy Lubale5 hours agoBitcoin traders say BTC’s trend change potential rests at $65KBitcoin’s potential trend change awaits at $65,000, where short-term traders will break even and leveraged shorts risk a major washout.1576 Total views6 Total sharesListen to article 0:00Market AnalysisOwn this piece of crypto historyCollect this article as NFTJoin us on social networksBitcoin’s price is seeking to recover from its June losses, but onchain data suggests that it may run into resistance around the $65,000 level.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed Bitcoin (BTC) trading at $62,288, down 0.5% over the last 24 hours and 8.6% over the last 30 days. This follows an extended downtrend in June that reversed all the gains made in May.
According to Coinglass data, when Bitcoin has had a negative June, it tends to bounce back strongly in July. In fact, BTC has shown an average return of 7.98% and a median return of 9.60% in July.Bitcoin monthly returns. Source: Coinglass
However, technical and onchain data reveals that any attempts at recovery this month may be curtailed by sell-side pressure from the $65,000 level. A look at the daily chart shows that Bitcoin price faces stiff resistance in its recovery path.
This is the zone between $61,817 and $56,914, embraced by the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the 50-day EMA, respectively.BTC/USD daily chart. Source:TradingView
“In the short-term, we should expect some resistance around the ~$65,000 level as short-term market speculators may look to exit their positions at a ‘breakeven’ level,” analysts at Blockware Intelligence declared in the latest edition of the newsletter.“Last summer, when BTC lost the STH [short-term holder] RP support level, price traded sideways for another two months before finally breaking out again.”
Note that the June drawdown pushed Bitcoin’s spot price well below the widely tracked STH cost basis, raising concerns over deeper corrections
According to data from LookIntoBitcoin, the cost basis for short-term holders was $64,513 as of June 28, compared to the spot price, which was hovering around $60,317.Bitcoin short-term holder realized price. Source: LookIntoBitcoin
Realized price or aggregate cost basis refers to the average price at which coins were last spent onchain.
This means that short-term holders now face losses and could attempt to exit the market at a loss or breakeven, potentially adding to selling pressure near the $65,000 mark.
In an analysis on X, independent analyst Ali Martinez corroborated this outlook, saying that based on the market-value-to-realized-value metric, BTC price could run into resistance above $65,000. Source:Ali Martinez
According to Martinez, a breach of this level could potentially open the path for Bitcoin’s rally toward $78,700.
Interestingly, the Bitcoin one-month liquidation heatmap by Coinglass shows sell-bids amounting to $1.23 billion building up at $64,940.
Related:Bitcoin circles $63K as liquidity sparks hopes of 40% BTC price gains
Meanwhile, Thomas Fahrer, founder of crypto company Apollo, is more optimistic about Bitcoin’s ability to rise above $65,000.
“$940M of #Bitcoin shorts will be liquidated at 65K,” he declared in a July 2 post on X.Bitcoin liquidation chart. Source:Thomas Fahrer
“The first rule of Bitcoin is don’t short Bitcoin,” he added in a follow-up post. “The flows will come, and shorts will be punished.”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.# Bitcoin# Cryptocurrencies# Bitcoin Price# Markets# Cryptocurrency Exchange# Market AnalysisAdd reaction