Yashu Gola7 hours agoCan Cardano whales stop ADA price from falling 20%?The amount of ADA being held by Cardano"s richest investors has surged to its highest level in almost a year.1305 Total views5 Total sharesListen to article 0:00Altcoin WatchJoin us on social networksThe price of Cardano risks falling by over 20% in August as it enters a breakdown stage of a classic technical pattern that could be offset by some promising fundamentals. ADA price risks falling to June lows
Dubbed a bump and run reversal (BARR), the pattern develops when excessive speculation drives the price higher quickly, eventually leading to a “bull trap" situation. As it forms, the price trend undergoes three stages — lead-in, bump and run — as shown below.Bump and run reversal illustration. Source: Warrior Trading
The lead-in stage sees the price trending upward in an orderly fashion — without any excess speculation. But the bump stage witnesses a sharp advance in price, followed by a complete wipeout of the spike.
In the run stage, the price breaks below the support from the lead-in trendline. Currently, Cardano (ADA) appears to have entered the run phase of its BARR pattern, as shown below.ADA/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView
If the pattern is confirmed, BARR’s downside target is measured after subtracting the breakdown point at the support line from the pattern’s maximum height. That brings ADA’s price target near $0.22 in August or early September, down 20% from current levels.
Conversely, an ADA rebound can reach the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) near $0.30 in August, up 5% from the current price.ADA/USD daily price chart with 50-day EMA (red) and 200-day EMA (blue). Source: TradingView
Furthermore, flipping the wave into support could see a further runup toward the 200-day EMA near $0.34, up around 30% from current price levels.Whales and sharks buy ADA price dips
On-chain fundamentals, however, could offset the bearish risks for Cardano.
Notably, whale and shark wallets holding between 100,000 and 1 million ADA have accumulated $116.1 million worth of Cardano since May 2023, raising their net holdings to the highest levels since September 2022.Cardano whale and shark accumulation in recent months. Source: Santiment
This period of Cardano accumulation coincides with its 25% price decline caused by regulatory fears in the United States.
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Simply put, ADA whales and sharks have bought the price dip and are betting on future gains.Cardano TVL, DApp transactions grow
Additionally, the ADA accumulation period happened alongside growth in Cardano’s key network metrics in the second quarter. Namely, the total value locked (TVL) grew 9.7% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ), while average daily transactions for decentralized applications (DApps) jumped 49% QoQ.Cardano TVL denominated in the U.S. dollar and ADA. Source: Messari
Stablecoins fueled this TVL and DApp transaction movement, growing 34.9% QoQ — from $10.0 million in Q1 to $13.5 million in Q2. This growth in network activity should add to the upward pressure for ADA, which serves as a fee settlement and staking token in the Cardano ecosystem.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.# Altcoin# Analysis# Markets# Cardano# Tech Analysis# Market Analysis# Altcoin WatchAdd reactionAdd reactionRelated NewsHow to use index funds and ETFs for passive crypto incomeThe absurd AI mania is coming to an endBlackRock’s misguided effort to create ‘Crypto for Dummies’Why is Cardano price up today?Why is Polygon (MATIC) price up today?Can XRP price hit $1? Watch these levels next